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OBJECTIVES With today's market volatility we will seek faster returns with less risk, instead of buy and hold (which we call "buy and forget"). The markets in 2000 and 2001 have amply demonstrated the dangers of holding positions for the long haul with the regrettable excuse of avoiding the payment of taxes. We are in the 21st Century, not in 1950. Our approach is based on letting the profits run and getting rid of the inevitable losers. Any investor can arrive at the conclusion that our approach beats buy and hold, while reducing risk exposure. We will close the positions that are profitable when they start showing the risk of giving back part of that profit. Of course we will pay taxes. But we pay taxes only once on the same profit. And more often than not, the after-tax profit will be enough for buying more shares of the same stock later on, if that is the best chart we can find. Usually it is not. Keep in mind that when a stock starts dropping there is no way of knowing how low the stock will go and how long it will take for the same stock to turn around. So if you sell when there is a sell signal, within a few days you will be able to re-invest your funds into another stock that you can select using again our selection approach. That is why we believe that better timing will generate better profits. The chart below for Lucent Technologies
Inc.(LU) was published on page 22 of the September 10, 2001 Forbes
magazine issue, available in late August. It helps explaining
how the average investor is misled into investing at the wrong
time by the best brains in the investing industry.
In the same 12 months our system would not generate a sell signal for the simple reason it provided one on July 20, when the stock closed at $54.25 (above the first price shown in the chart). The actual exit would be at $53.38, the open the following day. Indeed we recommend exiting a position at the open of the day after the signal was identified. If you cannot perceive the difference in your bottom line - or if you are too lazy to care about it - then our trading approach is too good for you. But if you think our trading philosophy makes sense, makes money and cuts the risk, please check the appropriate subjects in the home page. |
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Please e-mail Alpha Trading Systems for more information. Or call
(281) 759-9925, fax (281) 759-9925. Or write: Copyright 1994-2001, Luiz V. Alvim. The CFTC requires displaying the following notice: Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations unlike an actual performance report. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. |